BetsonBroad official 2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Since we do not have any sports action tonight, I figured I would drop the official BetsonBroad election predictions, picks and analysis for the 2020 Presidential Election.

But first, it is important to highlight this entire analysis is from an objective viewpoint, this has nothing to do with my own personal views and is based solely off predictive models and expert opinions I’ve come to trust and support over the years.

Quick explanation of the pictures:

1. My EV prediction.
2. The PredictIt Map (what we will be using to bet).
3. From here on will be predictions and analysis (too big to fit in a text box on IG).

Now let’s begin.

I forecast President DJT to win re-election by earning between 300–330 EVs. Yes this is a wide range, but my map in the first picture reflects exactly 320 EVs. I forecast the Republican Party to maintain or increase its majority in the senate by 1-seat. I also forecast the Democrats to maintain their majority in the House.

I am personally fading a Democrat sweep in all 3 branches, as well as the WH and Senate as separate fade bets. I would recommend betting on President DJT to secure over 300 EVs. FYI all the bets mentioned above are plus money. In addition, on a state by state basis, I am betting on The President to win any blue state in the PredictIt map that is below .80.

States I am least confident in that I have him winning in my EV forecast:

1. Pennsylvania
2. Minnesota
3. New Hampshire

States I am least confident in that I have VP Joe Biden winning:

1. Nevada
2. Maine
3. New Mexico

As for the popular vote, I project a turnout of roughly 150–155 million voters for the Presidential.

Split as follows:

Democrats: 73–75 million. This figure is highly dependent upon how much they have cannibalized their Election Day vote with early voting and voting by mail and the shenanigans the states of NY, IL and CA are known to pull.

Republicans: 73–75 million. This figure is highly dependent upon Working-Class-Whites, how much of the African American and Hispanic vote The President secures (I forecast 10%-15% of each African Americans and Hispanics).

3rd Party: 2–4 million votes.

While a bet on the popular vote may appear enticing, given the history of corruption in CA, NY and IL, a large bet on the President to win the PV is ill-advised. A small flyer bet, sure, but do not bet heavy on this.

So now everyone probably asking:

But what about the Polls?!!!

The answer is simple. These polls do not reflect a realistic turnout (most polls forecast 2008 turnout 🤣🤣🤣🤣) and are weighted wayyy too heavily in favor of Democrats. The projected electorate is

D/R +/- 1. Not D+5 to 8 like the majority of these polls reflect. When you reference the cross tabs of these polls (abc/WaPo, CNN, Survey Monkey, CNBC, Quinnipiac, etc.) you can see that these numbers don’t add up. Expect another major error in polls this election, probably larger than 2016.

In regards to 538: Nate Silver removed some of the most accurate polls from his aggregated list. Not to mention, in the betting community he is known as a joke. I haven’t and won’t looked at his site. It’s useless.

Models & data supporting outcome:

1. Norpoth’s primary model;
2. Oxford’s GDP model;
3. Washington primary model;
4. Voter registration trends, specifically in BG States (FL, AZ, PA, WI, MI, GA);
5. Early Vote/Vote-By-Mail results: as of now the Democrats are far from where they need to be by Election Day with regards to EV/VBM;
6. Enthusiasm gap;
7. Gallup party affiliation/projected electorate, Gallup has this electorate as R+1;
8. Social media activity;
9. Google searches;
10. Gallup Q: Are you better of now than you were 4-years ago?
11. Gallup party approval: 94%
12. The cookie count!

In conclusion, if you support Biden/Harris, bet Trump/Pence and you will at least gain financially from the election. If you support Trump/Pence, take your favorite and cash in along with your vote